How to forecast your October care minutes target

By Christopher Lyons, Consultant

Did you know that Saturday, 1st of June 2024 marked the beginning of the calculation period for your October care minute targets. These targets will be determined based on the care minute needs of residents in your facility from 1st June to 31st August and then adjusted to the new Industry average target of 215 care minutes.

The first non-compliance notices for not meeting either care worker or RN minutes have been issued. It is no longer enough to be “3 Stars” or meet one target and not both.

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Some providers who are finalising budgets for the new financial year are currently scratching their heads on what to account for. Some of the regular questions we are fielding are:

1. When will we know the care minutes per AN-ACC class?
2. What will the new AN-ACC price be?
3. How will we increase staffing to meet the increased care minutes?

Although the Department of Health and Aged Care will be publishing details for questions 1 & 2 in August, providers need information now to be able to budget and plan effectively.

What can you do now to forecast your October target?

Using your July to September care minute targets as the baseline, (Mirus Metrics clients can access estimates now), providers can apply calculations to forecast your estimated October targets.

To make your estimate, take your current care minutes target and multiply it by the percentage increase from 200 minutes to 215 minutes (7.5%).  The percentage for RN minutes to move from 40 minutes to 44 minutes is a 10% increase.

For example:

• 204.50 minutes (Jul to Sep target) × 1.075 = 219.84 minutes (Oct to Dec estimated Target)
• 40.30 minutes (Jul to Sep RN target) × 1.10 = 44.33 minutes (Oct to Dec estimated RN Target)

Next steps:

1. Assess compliance: If your current workforce remains compliant in excess of increased care minute targets at forecast occupancy levels, further AN-ACC reassessments can be completed to recover staffing costs.
2. Adjust as needed: If your current workforce fails to meet the increased care minute requirements, adjustments can either be made to your resident case mix to reduce your October targets, or further hours can be added into your rosters.

Forecasting the new AN-ACC Price

Providers can also estimate the new AN-ACC price to assist with budgeting. Recent Department publications indicate that the entirety of the care minute increases will be funded under AN-ACC and assumptions can be made around the indexation figures.

• Current AN-ACC price: $253.82
• Current AN-ACC price x 7.5% (Fully funded care minute increase):$272.86
• Updated AN-ACC price x 3.6% (Indexation assumption): $282.68

Using the above estimates, a funding and care minute forecast per AN-ACC class from October can be formulated. The figures provided below are based on a wide range of assumptions and should be used as a guide only. True estimates will be available following the announcement of the new AN-ACC price and confirmation of the care minutes per class in August 2024.

If you have questions or need support in planning, monitoring or managing AN-ACC or care minutes, there are lots of ways we can help.

• Have you had your care minute calculations audited by someone externally? We can benchmark your care minutes and review your policy and job descriptions with our Care Minute Policy Review.
• Do you have your rosters and funding in balance? AN-ACC can be easy to maximise your revenue and reduce agency hours, find out how with AN-ACC Accelerator.
• Do you have a safe, secure AN-ACC management system helping you automatically calculate your future requirements and maximise your revenue return? Find out why Mirus Metrics is the only AN-ACC management tool!
• Can you forecast your care minute compliance based on your worked and future rosters? Learn more about Care Minute Manager.